If you thought digital has evolved rapidly over the past few years, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Over the next 4 – 5 years, digital innovation as well as spend is expected to sky-rocket. After reading countless prediction articles, this is a compilation of 22 forecasts and emerging trends which no major brand can afford to ignore. In particular more half of these are related to mobile – which demonstrates the impact it will have on the industry in the years to come.
Mobile & Tablet – Current Usage, Forecasts & Trends
1. Smartphone Penetration; In 2015 nearly 90% of all Australian mobile phone users will have a smartphone, up from just under 50% in 2011.
2. Tablet Usage; Gartner predicts tablet shipments worldwide will grow from 17.6 million in 2011 to an astounding 326.3 million in 2015. According to PWC one in every four Australian consumers will own a table computer by 2015 – which is higher than the global average which is anticipated to reach 15 – 20%.
3. Mobile Internet Overtakes Desktop Usage; Telsyte forecasts online publishers in Australia will have a larger smartphone audience than the computer-based online audience by 2015. The inflection point will occur sometime during 2014.
4. Mobile Gamification: By 2015, 70 per cent of global 2000 companies will have at least 1 gamified app.
5. App Downloads: IDC forecasts the number of annual mobile app downloads to increase from 10.7 billion in 2010 to nearly 183 billion by 2015.
6. Windows Marketshare; Windows Phone is forecast to reach 20% market share globally by 2015. Gartner/IDC said the big loser would be iOS and Android will only continue to grow reaching as high as 49% by 2015.
7. Mobile Payments; By 2015, Gartner predicts mobile payments will account for 5 per cent of all consumer electronic transactions worldwide.
8. Second Screen Usage; According to data from Yahoo/Nielsen, 86% of web users now use a mobile device while watching TV.
9. Mobile Gaming; Mobile gaming in the US is anticipated to be worth $591.5 million by 2015 up from $181 million.
On the basis of the above, there is little doubt that mobile will be the device of choice to access the internet in years to come. How marketers leverage mobile to connect and engage with consumers however is still in its infancy – and over the next few years marketers will need to focus on new trends to remain relevant. Some of which include;
10. Context Aware Experiences; Context-aware services and applications will provide improved user experiences by using personal information i.e. interests, intentions, history, environment and preferences to anticipate consumer needs and proactively serve up the most appropriate content, product or service.
11. Object Recognition; Object Recognition (OR) apps are penned as a hot trend to watch in 2012 and beyond. OR recognises a user’s surroundings including specific objects of interest. OR is anticipated to open up a world of new opportunities for marketers to engage and connect.
12. Near Field Communications (NFC); Near field communication can quickly swap information between devices when they’re touched together – and is tipped to become a popular mobile payment method in years to come – however near field communication (NFC) payment is not anticipated to become mainstream before 2015.
Video & Social Media Usage, Forecasts & Trends
13. Social Commerce; Gartner Research recently predicted that 50 percent of all digital sales will flow through social and mobile platforms by 2015. In addition $30 billion in global purchases expected to occur on social networking sites in 2015.
14. Personal Information Lock-Down; Gartner predicts in 2012, we will see the start of a negative backlash against social media, with 20 per cent of consumers reducing the amount of information they share online.
15. Shift from UGC to professional video content; In 2012, there will be shift toward professionally created video content. YouTube will launch at least 90 new original channels featuring celebrities, professional creators and more. This new trend, will drive consumer demand for more professional content.
16. Photo / Multimedia Networks Emerge; Growth in Instagram and Pinterest, demonstrates the rise of photo / multimedia social platforms. Instagram reached 15 million users by the end of 2011, whilst Pinterest received over 31 million visits and this is anticipated to accelerate over the coming years.
Online Advertising (Paid Search, Display & Video)
17. Online Video Advertising Growth; Forrester Research predicts digital video advertising (US) will reach at least $5.4 billion by 2016; in 2011 digital video ads pulled in $2 billion. Whilst eMarketer predicts video ads will overtake rich media advertising spend, growing to over $7 billion in 2015.
18. Mobile Advertising Growth; eMarketer predicts $1.07 billion to be spent on mobile advertising in 2015 of which $213.6 million will be spent on mobile video advertising.
19. Shift away from paid search; By 2016, Forrester predicts a shift away from paid search towards display advertising. Forrester predicts search share of online media spend will decline by 11% as paid search costs continue to rise and ROI is eroded.
20. Online Ad Spend Surpasses TV; According to Forrester, Interactive marketing spend is set to dethrone TV globally (this includes search marketing, display advertising, email marketing, mobile marketing, and social media) and represent 26% of all advertising.
Other Digital Forecasts
21. Connected TV Growth; It is predicted that 65% of TVs sold in 2012, will be connected TVs – rising to as many as 80% by 2015. Whilst a few brands have began investing in the space, 2013 is likely to see investment in TV apps and content accelerate – which will be partly driven by the introduction of Apple TV in 18 months time.
22. Connected Cars; In the same way TVs of the future are internet enabled, so too will cars – with an estimated 55 million global consumers able to access internet via their vehicle by 2016.